Wednesday, February 20, 2008

On stocktips

Neither borrower nor lender be for loan oft loses both itself and friend. Shakespeare had it right, the involvement of money complicates relationships. Since losing $40 bucks and all respect for a high school friend of mine, I've stayed away from borrowing or lending money to friends and family. Better to give it away. It's probably about time to do the same with stocks.

I have yet to be burned by giving wayward stock advise; however persistent inquires by none other than my blood kin have made me rethink my previously ad hoc position. I am no more sure of my stock picking abilities then the next self- proclaimed king of penny stocks; my style suits myself and likely no one else. It is a combination of temperament and risk taking that has produced returns but at a cost of numbers jumping over fences (rather than sheep) and geometric extrapolations that run amuck. If I were to sell or buy slightly differently, these differences may magnify any losses or gains. Let's see if my one and only stock tip fall kaput tomorrow.

Out of CYNO at 23.2. Hindsight says I shouldn't have held out for the 10% gain; I am increasingly learning that ~50% of my speculations do not hit their anticipated end point within the allotted time. In at NTGR @ 22.08. Poor guidance and poor earnings; but fundamentally a good business.

Pretty much all in at AFSI at 15.05. Couldn't get my <15 start point because I was holding CYNO, but earnings were fantastic tonight. If guidance is good tomorrow during the conference call; this is going to move. 18 anyone? Of course if guidance goes down; man that'll be ugly. Thank god for value.

No comments: